Equilon FXThis article preserves the desk’s published view at that time. Prices, market assumptions and trade status are historical statements, not current guidance or independently verified performance.
February was a slow month by design. We took one trade. Closed P&L: +1.6R. Trades skipped: three. A boring month is a good month when the conditions are boring.
The trade
Long USD/CAD from 1.3525, closed 1.3605. +1.6R. Held for nine sessions. Setup: clean reclaim of the daily structure, oil softening into the entry, BoC's dovish drift becoming the consensus.
Not a heroic trade. A patient one.
The skips
Feb 5 — short EUR/USD at 1.0890. Setup looked clean but the desk was carrying USD/CAD long already. Doubling up on dollar longs across two pairs concentrates risk. Skipped.
Feb 12 — short USD/JPY at 154.20. Same setup we keep declining. Trigger isn't there. Skipped. Saved roughly 0.5R as USD/JPY rallied for another week before reversing.
Feb 19 — long GBP/USD at 1.2580. Cable was at the bottom of its range with no structural confirmation, just oversold conditions. Buying oversold without structure is gambling. Skipped. GBP/USD did rally — but to 1.2640, not enough to justify the risk size we'd have needed.
What worked structurally
The single concentrated trade discipline. Most months the desk takes 4-6 positions. This month one position carried the entire month's R. That's fine when the market gives you only one clean setup.
Carry-month-to-month consistency: 9 of last 12 months closed positive, average +2.4R. February at +1.6R was below average but in the green.
What didn't work
Missed two trades from the watchlist that ran without us. Going to add a "second-tier" trigger for those — entries we take at half-size when the primary trigger is missing but structure is otherwise present. Will test this in March.
The math
- Trades taken: 1
- Win rate: 100%
- Total R: +1.6
- Trades skipped: 3 (skip-saved R: estimated +0.5)
- Net month: +1.6R locked
Cadence over heroes
The instinct in a slow month is to force trades to "keep busy." That instinct loses money. The desk's job in slow months is to not get blown out waiting for the next regime change. February did that. March is shaping up better.
Educational only. Not investment advice. Read the full risk disclaimer.